Greater Horn of Africa likely to face drought once again!
The 30th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 30) concluded with a warning that the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of which have suffered badly from drought in recent years, could suffer below normal rainfall during the March-May 2012 rainy season. This is not good news for farmers and pastoralists in the areas which have been affected by drought in recent years. It is important that all concerned bodies be alert and takes necessary measures to mitigate possible negative impacts.
The regional consensus climate outlook for the March to May rainfall season indicates increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa region. Specifically, it indicates a 45% probability of below normal rainfall over much of eastern and northern Kenya; southern, eastern and northeastern Ethiopia; Somalia and Djibouti, with a 35% probability of near normal rainfall and a 25% probability of above normal rainfall in these areas. It also indicates an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over southwestern Tanzania, southwestern Ethiopia, and South Sudan and southwestern Sudan.
The Forum took place in Kigali, Rwanda, from 27-29 February 2012, and brought together national experts from the region, as well as regional and international experts. The event was organized by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), and sponsored by the African Development Bank (AfDB), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and World bank/GFDR. Participants also considered what could be done differently to help reduce the impacts of future droughts and other climate extremes in the region.
The outlook is relevant for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations might occur. Forecast updates will be provided by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. The users are therefore strongly advised to contact their National Meteorological Services for National and local details.
The Greater Horn of Africa region comprises Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.