Resources for Theme 'Climate Science'
admin | 2014-07-30 | 3.2 MB | details
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced the most comprehensive assessment of climate change ever. The Fifth Assessment Report (http://www.ipcc.ch ), which the IPCC is releasing in four parts between September 2013 and November 2014, is the work of 830 expert authors, from 85 countries. Its first three volumes already stretch to 5,000+ pages.
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What’s in it for Africa? distils the richest material on climate impacts and trends in Africa, and African experiences in adaptation and mitigation, from the thousands of pages of the Fifth Assessment Report. The expert research team has worked under the guidance of IPCC Coordinating Lead Authors and Reviewers to ensure fidelity to the original material.
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What’s in it for Africa? aims to make the IPCC’s important material more accessible and usable to African audiences. This guide responds to wide demand for region-specific information.
The guide is part of a suite of materials to promote the key findings of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. Forthcoming companion volumes will provide a digest of IPCC findings for: South Asia; Latin America; and Small Island Developing States. Please visit www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit from 16 July 2014, to access a range of resources, including free-to-use images and infographics.
Prévisions saisonnières des pluies, des caractéristiques climatiques et des écoulements pour la saison des pluies 2014 en Afrique de l’Ouest, au Cameroun et au Tchad
admin | 2014-05-06 | 74.8 KB | details
Les experts climatologues, agro-météorologues et hydrologues du Centre Africain pour les Applications de la Météorologie au Développement AGRHYMET, les représentants des pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, du Tchad et du Cameroun chargés du suivi et de l’élaboration des informations sur la campagne pluviométrique, agro climatique et hydrométéorologique ainsi que les représentants des organismes de la région, se sont retrouvés, du 28 avril au 02 mai 2014, à Bamako au Mali pour élaborer les prévisions saisonnières des caractéristiques hydro-climatiques de la saison des pluies 2014.
Rapport Final - ENDA_"Agriculture, Changement Climatique et Responsabilité Sociétale des Organisations"
admin | 2013-09-01 | 4.2 MB | details
"Initiative Savoirs, Culture et Développement Durable"
Première édition intitulée "Agriculture, Changement Climatique et Responsabilité Sociétale des Organisations"
admin | 2013-07-02 | 1.3 MB | details
Any farmer or policy-maker concerned about climate change would like to know how much crop yields will go up or down in the coming decades. But don’t hold your breath: even our newest general circulation models are not yet up to the task of making climate projections reliable enough for us to estimate agricultural yields under climate change. So says the paper Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research by Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andy Challinor, Philip Thornton and Andy Jarvis.
The authors analyse the performance at regional level of 26 simulations in CMIP5, which is the ensemble of general circulation models that will form the basis of the 2014 report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Testing the simulations against real weather data from five tropical regions, they find typical errors of more than 2°C for temperature and 20% for precipitation over the growing season. This level of precision is simply not good enough: staple crops such as maize and rice are highly sensitive to 2°C rise in temperature or 20% less rainfall, with yield changes of 10-20%.
As well as affecting trends in average conditions, climate change means more variable rainfall and temperature, both within and between growing seasons. But models are poor at representing inter-annual variability. Also, they perform much better for some regions and some crops than for others. The authors note for northern India that wheat, sown in winter under irrigation, is much easier to simulate than summer-sown rice, owing to the large GCM biases in monsoon rainfall. Hence we can all too easily make mistakes in major adaptation decisions like which crop to promote as a future “best bet” under climate change.
More encouraging news is that models’ ability to represent climate is improving, by up to 15% compared to CMIP3. However, if models are to advance sufficiently to permit assessments of future crop yields before today’s young scientists have retired, we need major breakthroughs in modeling approaches, not just linear improvements. For policy-makers, increasing ability to make decisions despite uncertainty may actually be more important than improving models.
Are climate models useless then? On the contrary: perhaps we should be using them more, but for different purposes. First comes the basic physics. Models provide unique insights into climatic processes, and it may be preferable to enhance their ability to mimic critical mechanisms such as cloud formation, even if that functionality comes at the expense of certainty in forecasts.
Second, when using models to assess adaptation options in agriculture, rather than generating a single “most likely scenario” (such as an expected percentage change in crop yield) it may be better to use models to elicit a range of scenarios. Policy-makers can thus test whether promising adaptation options may indeed be feasible over multiple possible futures. Or they can explore completely novel ideas and pathways. Perhaps the very best use of models is to improve our questions, not our answers.
Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience - World Bank, 2013
admin | 2013-06-20 | 6.8 MB | details
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided.
Changement Climatique, Agriculture et Responsabilité Sociétale des Organisations: Note conceptuelle et Agenda
admin | 2013-05-11 | 882.5 KB | details
Note conceptuelle et Agenda
admin | 2013-05-11 | 820.0 KB | details
Event concept note and agenda
admin | 2013-05-10 | 917.8 KB | details
Kry research findings from the "Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project
Forecast of July-August-September 2013 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast Issued May 3rd 2013
admin | 2013-05-05 | 311.9 KB | details
The Met Office has made forecasts of seasonal rainfall for the Sahel and other climatologically defined regions in North Africa since 1986 using a combination of statistical and dynamical methods. A review of the performance of the forecasts in recent years (1987-2007) concluded that forecasts for these North African regions based on the Met Office dynamical model perform as well or better than combined statistical and dynamical forecasts; therefore these North Africa forecasts are now based purely on the Met Office dynamical model forecasts of July-September rainfall produced using the GloSea5 forecast system. The GloSea5 system is replacing the GloSea4 system and benefits from higher resolution (60-90 Km atmosphere and 30Km ocean) global circulation model.
The forecast is presented as a prediction for three climatologically defined regions. The three regions (figure 1) are Region 1 (referred to as the Sahel): 15W to 37.5E,12.5N to 17.5N, Region 2 (referred to as Soudan): 7.5W to 33.75E, 10N to 12.5N, and Region 3 (referred to as Guinea coast): approximately 7.5W to 7.5E, 5N to 10N.