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Forecast of July-August-September 2013 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast Issued May 3rd 2013

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admin | 2013-05-05 15:36 | download | 311.9 KB
Filename: resources/873/previsions-saisonnieres.pdf


Author(s):

Date of publication: 2013-05-05

Associated Organization: Met Office

Themes: Climate Science

Regions: Africa

Countries:

Summary:

The Met Office has made forecasts of seasonal rainfall for the Sahel and other climatologically defined regions in North Africa since 1986 using a combination of statistical and dynamical methods. A review of the performance of the forecasts in recent years (1987-2007) concluded that forecasts for these North African regions based on the Met Office dynamical model perform as well or better than combined statistical and dynamical forecasts; therefore these North Africa forecasts are now based purely on the Met Office dynamical model forecasts of July-September rainfall produced using the GloSea5 forecast system. The GloSea5 system is replacing the GloSea4 system and benefits from higher resolution (60-90 Km atmosphere and 30Km ocean) global circulation model.

The forecast is presented as a prediction for three climatologically defined regions. The three regions (figure 1) are Region 1 (referred to as the Sahel): 15W to 37.5E,12.5N to 17.5N, Region 2 (referred to as Soudan): 7.5W to 33.75E, 10N to 12.5N, and Region 3 (referred to as Guinea coast): approximately 7.5W to 7.5E, 5N to 10N. 

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